Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Industrial Production Increases .4%


U.S. industrial production rose by an overall 0.4% in December, as the high-technology and motor-vehicle industries posted strong output for the month, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday.


Bear Stearns economists said that, coupled with other recent data, the industrial output figure showed the economy improved at the end of the year.

"Data on employment, retail sales, and production suggest that the economy's momentum was picking up at the end of 2006," the economists wrote in a research note.

Let's look inside the report, because there are two sides to analyze.

Overall industrial production decreased -.3%, -.1% and -.1% in September through November, respectively. That means the overall .4% look like a rebound.

On a monthly basis there are lots of increases -- consumer durables and non-durables, business equipment (which saw a big bump), durable and nondurable manufacturing and mining all saw increases. These increases should give the market some confidence going forward because they occurred across a wide spectrum of industrial areas.

I should note that last months manufacturing ISM saw increases as well, although the index was hovering around 50 which is the line between expansion and contraction.

However, overall industrial production fell at a -.5% rate in the fourth quarter. The second lowest annual growth rate occurred in the third quarter at 4%. In other words, the fourth quarter saw an overall downturn. All industrial areas - manufacturing, consumer goods, energy, business goods -- saw low numbers on a quarterly basis. Manufacturing contracted -1.4% on an annual basis in the 4th quarter.

The breadth of this month's increases is a good sign. However, another month of increases is required before we pop the champaign corks.