- by New Deal democrat
After last week’s big jump, this week initial jobless claims declined -21,000 to 221,000. The four week moving average increased 250 to 224,250. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 42,000 to 1.897 million:
On the more important YoY basis for forecasting purposes, initial claims were higher by 5.2%, the four week moving average was up 7.6%, and continuing claims were up 5.7%:
After last week, I think all observers were waiting to see if Federal employee layoffs would drive this series further into negative territory. This week, at least, they did not. These are all “neutral” readings, suggesting a somewhat sluggish but still growing economy.
Finally, since this week’s jobless claims feed into the March rather than February average, they do not affect the latest monthly average of claims. Thus the leading indicator for the unemployment rate in tomorrow’s jobs report remains the same as last week:
Which means that the conclusion is also the same as last week, to wit: On a monthly basis initial claims are up 7.0% YoY, and initial + continuing claims together are up 10.4%. Since one year ago the unemployment rate was 3.8%, for the first time in many months this suggests upward pressure on the unemployment rate, since 3.8%* 1.07 and *1.10 indicates an unemployment rate of 4.1% or 4.2%, vs. last month’s 4.0%.
