- by New Deal democrat
My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha.
Several of the trend indicators that had been languishing, namely real money supply and manufacturing new orders, have turned up. But that is being offset by an overly strong US$. Once the Dollar increases in value relative to other currencies by 5% or more, it has a significant negative effect on the economy, becuase it makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper (which, not coincidentally, pretty much offsets the effects of tariffs.
addendum: Here is a special bonus graph of the US$ vs. major currencies, both YoY(red, left scale) and in absolute terms (blue, right scale), show the surge to over 5% YoY that occurred immediately after the November election:
As usual, clicking over and reading the details will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the state of the economy, and bring me a $ or two for my lunch money.
