- by New Deal democrat
Below is my in depth synopsis.
- 22,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 27,000. Government jobs declined -6,000. The three month average declined sharply to +29,000, well below the breakeven point necessary with any kind of population growth.
- The pattern of downward revisions to previous months continued. June was revised downward by -27,000 to a *decline* of -13,000, while July increased 6,000 to +79,000, for a net declined of -21,000.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, rose by 288,000 jobs. On a YoY basis, this series increased 1,969,000 jobs, or an average of 164,000 monthly.
- The U3 unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.3%. Since the three month average is 4.2% vs. a low of 4.0% for the three month average in the past 12 months, or an increase of 0.2%, this means the “Sahm rule” is not in play.
- The U6 underemployment rate rose 0.2% to 8.1%, a new 3.5 year high.
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now rose by 179,,000 to 6.354 million, its highest level since July 2021.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, was fell -0.2 hours to 40.9 hours, and is down -0.7 hours from its 2021 peak of 41.6 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs decreased by -12,000, the fourth decline in a row. This series declined sharply in the second half of 2024 before stabilizing earlier this year. It is now at a 3+ year low.
- Truck driving, which had briefly rebounded earlier this year, declined another -900.
- Construction jobs fell -7,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, declined -900. This is the 5th decline in a row for this important series.
- Goods producing jobs as a whole declined -25,000. This is now the 4th decline in a row, which is very important because these jobs typically decline before any recession occurs. Further, on a YoY% basis, these jobs are now negative by -0.2%. Only three times in the past 70+ years - 1952, 1967, and 1984 - has this series been more negative YoY than this without it being during or shortly before a recession.
- Temporary jobs, which have declined by over -650,000 since late 2022, declined again this month, by -9,800, a new post-pandemic low.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer rose 177,000 to 2,476,000, its highest level in 3.5 years.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.12, or +0.4%, to $31.46, for a YoY gain of +3.9%, close to its lowest YoY% gain in 4 years set last month. Nevertheless, this continues to be well above the 2.7% YoY inflation rate as of last month.
- The index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers was unchanged, but is up 1.0% YoY, about average for the past two years.
- The index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose 0.4%. It is now up 5.0% YoY, about average for the past 18 months.
- Professional and business employment declined another -17,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs. This is the fourth decline in a row, and is the lowest number in over 3 years. It is also lower YoY by -0.2%, which in the past 80+ years - until now - has almost *always* meant recession. This is vs. last spring when it was down -0.9% YoY.
- The employment population ratio was unchanged at 59.6%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate increased +0.1% from last month’s 2.5 year low to 62.3% , vs. 63.4% in February 2020.