- by New Deal democrat
One of my alternate systems for forecasting recessions is what I call the “Consumer Nowcast.” This is a fundamentals-based system that looks at all the likely potential sources of consumer spending (which is 70% of the economy) and asks whether or not they have been stymied.
At the present moment, the answer is pretty decisive. I have posted this as an article at Seeking Alpha, exploring the relevant metrics and coming to a firm conclusion, albeit a nowcast only and not a forecast.
