Thursday, February 29, 2024

Initial claims still very positive, especially YoY


 - by New Deal democrat

Before I get to this morning’s personal income and spending report, let’s get the latest weekly update to jobless claims out of the way.

New jobless claims rose 13,000 to 215,000, while the four week moving average declined -3,000 to 212,500. Continuing claims, contrarily, rose 45,000 to 1.905 million, their second highest reading in over 2 years (but remains extremely low compared with the 40 years before the pandemic):

On the more important YoY basis for forecasting purposes, both the one week and four week average of new claims are down -2.7%, while continuing claims are up 10.9%, which remains better than almost all readings in the past 10 months:

Finally, for purposes of forecasting the unemployment rate, the February average of claims continues to suggest that the unemployment rate will remain steady or decline in the next few months:

The Sahm rule for recessions is not going to be triggered in the nearest future.