Thursday, February 15, 2024

Initial claims remain positive


 - by New Deal democrat

Initial jobless claims declined this week -8,000 to 212,000. The four week average rose 5,750 to 218,250. With the typical one week lag, continuing claims rose 30,000 to 1.865 million:

On the more important (for forecasting purposes) YoY basis, initial claims are down -1.9%. The four week average is up 5.4%. Continuing claims are up 10.3%:

Initial claims indicate continued expansions. Continuing claims would be a significant issue if supported by initial claims, but this is their lowest YoY increase in eleven months. 

While the last several weeks of initial claims are higher than in January, they remain very low by historical standards, and continue to suggest that the unemployment rate will stay steady or decline in the next few months:

These remain good reports.