- by New Deal democrat
As I wrote earlier this week, the short leading indicators for both jobs (real retail sales) and the unemployment rate (initial jobless claims) have each signaled that we should expect weaker monthly employment reports, with both fewer new jobs and a higher unemployment rate. I have been noting this ever since February, when consumption growth started to flag, It already had shown up by last month, as the 3 month average in new jobs decelerated from over 500,000 to 383,000.
Secondarily, as of last month we were only 550,000 jobs shy of the pre-pandemic level. Would we finally get there?
The strength of the jobs market has been the best reason why the US is not currently in a recession. This report added to that argument.