Thursday, March 10, 2022

Jobless claims continue low, but lows for this expansion likely already past


 - by New Deal democrat

Initial claims (blue) rose 11,000 to 227,000 (vs. the pandemic low of 188,000 on December 4). The 4 week average (red) rose 500 to 231,250 (vs. the pandemic low of 199,750 on December 25). Continuing claims (gold, right scale) increased 18,000 to  1,494,000, (vs. 1,474,000 two weeks ago, which was the lowest number in over 50 years):

We have probably seen the lows in initial claims for this expansion.

With continuing claims continuing close to a 50 year+ low, the record tightness in the jobs market isn’t going away, meaning there will be continuing upward pressure on wages.

I’ll take a look at this morning’s CPI report in a separate post.