Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Nobody is (still) getting laid off


 - by New Deal democrat

[Note: This morning’s consumer inflation report was very important, and not in a good way. So I plan on doing a more extensive post on it tomorrow, and I’ll probably put off the next “Coronavirus Dashboard” till Friday.]

Initial claims declined another 4,000 this week to 267,000, and the 4 week average declined 7,250 to 278,000, both new pandemic lows:

For the past 50 years, initial claims have only been at these levels for 2 months at the peak of the late 1990’s tech boom, and from late 2015 to just before the pandemic in 2020.

Continuing claims, on the other hand, rose 59,000 from last week’s pandemic low to 2,160,000:

Similarly, only a few weeks in the late 1980s, plus 2 months in 1999, plus the last 4 years of the last expansion were below this number:

The labor market remains extremely tight. For all intents and purposes, nobody is getting laid off.