Tuesday, September 29, 2020

Outside the US, complacency leads to the virus roaring back


 - by New Deal democrat

The United States is not the only place where human behavior, alternating between panic and complacency, traces out the path of the pandemic.  Below are the per capita 7 day averages  over the past 3 months for new infections and deaths for the EU, with France, Spain, and Italy highlighted, plus the UK and Canada, in addition to the US.

First, here are deaths:

To see where deaths will be in several weeks, here are new infections:

Three months ago, the EU had the coronavirus beat, to the utter shame of the US.  Then they let down their guard, and the virus has come roaring back. Spain’s death rate has already exceeded that of the US. But as the rate of new infections shows, France is likely to join that sorry club in a couple of weeks, with the UK close behind if behavior doesn’t change immediately. Even Canada is showing is significant if much less concerning increase. Only Germany (not highlighted) down near the bottom has retained its vigilant policies and behavior.

Given human behavior, it is simply extremely unlikely that society can really get back to normal until there is an effective vaccine.