- by New Deal democrat
Last week I wrote a synopsis of the short leading indicators and what they suggested about the ultimate Presidential election result in November. Basically they have improved over the last several months, and suggested the polls would tighten compared with the present.
Among the missing June indicators were durable goods. They were reported this morning, and continued their sharp rebound from May, making up in total about half of their pandemic decline:
This adds to the evidence that the economy is likely to be better in November than it was in Q2, so adds incrementally to the idea that the race will tighten somewhat compared with recent polls.