Tuesday, March 10, 2020
This is what exponential growth looks like
- by New Deal democrat
I’ve placed an added emphasis on high frequency indicators, as they will be the first to show the impact of coronavirus on the economy.
This morning chain store sales for last week were reported. They were:
- Redbook +6.0% YoY
- Retail Economist unchanged w/w, +0.9% YoY
Needless to say, there was no impact at all on the Redbook number. While the Retail Economist number was definitely weak, there have been other, similar weak weeks earlier this year, so that number is equivocal. I suspect that this situation will change in no more than two weeks.
Meanwhile, here is a graph of the number of coronavirus cases in a number of countries including the US, compared with Italy, the epicenter of the outbreak in Europe (via Mark Handley, a Professor of Networked Systems in the UK):