- by New Deal democrat
As of this week, initial claims continue to be very close to their expansion lows. The 4 week moving average of claims Is 212,000, only 11,000, or 5.2%, above the lowest reading of this expansion:
On a YoY% change basis, the 4 week average is only 0.7% higher than one year ago (which itself was one of the lowest readings of the entire expansion):
But September claims so far are running -2,333, or -1.1% less than the full month of September 2018:
The less volatile 4 week average of continuing claims is also running -1.5% below where it was a year ago:
There is simply no sign whatsoever of any stress in the jobs market that we could expect to see in the immediate months preceding a recession. The recession risk for Q4 of this year is rapidly receding.