Thursday, June 13, 2019
Initial jobless claims for week ending June 10 - no concern yet
- by New Deal democrat
I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress.
My two thresholds are:
1. If the four week average on claims is more than 10% above its expansion low.
2. If the YoY% change in the monthly average turns higher.
Here’s this week’s update.
Initial claims last week were 222,000. The four week moving average was 217,750.
First, the four week average is only 8.1% above its recent low:
For now, initial claims are only signaling a little bit of weakness, but nothing to be imminently concerned about.