As usual, clicking over and reading not only helps you understand why you should pay attention to these sectors, but also helps reward me for my work.
As a bonus, here are the monthly % changes in total jobs (red), temporary employment (BLUE), manufacturing jobs (green), and construction jobs (purple) in the twelve months just before the last three recessions, plus 2018:
In the year prior to each of the last three recessions, at least two of the three leading jobs sectors — and sometimes all three — declined for months before the total number of jobs created monthly went negative. By contrast, with a couple of exceptions, all throughout 2018 all three leading sectors remained quite positive. This strongly suggests that, left to its own devices, the economy is not near a recession.
So I will highlight all three sectors when I summarize the jobs report tomorrow, looking for any changes.
BONUS BONUS! I’ll report on this more next week, but I wanted to point out that the Employment Cost Index for Q4 was reported this morning, and showed that the YoY change in *median* wages rose 3.1% in 2018 (+0.9% in Q4 alone). That’s the most in a decade and the highest during this expansion:
The labor market is finally tight enough that employers are starting to have to fork over some wage increases to average workers.