Thursday, December 13, 2018

A note on initial jobless claims

 - by New Deal democrat

Initial jobless claims for last week were reported at 206,000 this morning. That is one of the lowest weekly readings during this expansion.

More significantly, the 4 week moving average is back below 10% off its low, within the range of typical noise:

And it is down -4.6% YoY, which as the below graph going back 50 years shows, is actually a quite positive reading:

I continue to expect a slowdown next year, so I am not expecting any substantial improvement in this number, but it is certainly not negative now.