Wednesday, November 28, 2018

October new home sales plummet -- but take it with a big grain of salt

 - by New Deal democrat

As you may have already read elsewhere, new home sales plunged -8.9% in October to the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 544,000. Here's the accompanying graph:

BUT ... take this with a big grain of salt. The reason I rely on building permits, espectially single family permits, is their much smaller volatility, and *much* smaller rate of revisions.

To put this in context, here's the graph from one month ago:

September new home sales were originally reported at 553,000. One month later, they've been revised upward to 597,000! That's an 8% upward revision. So, who's to say what this month's number will look like one month from now.

Nevertheless, it certainly adds yet more evidence to the case that home sales have peaked for this cycle, barring a Fed reversal.