Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Live-blogging the 2018 Democratic ripple? Wave? Tsunami?

 - by New Deal democrat

I'm close to calling it a night, maybe one more post.  The summary is that there was no blue wave, just enough of a high blue tide to apparently take control of the House. the GOPers wone the lion's share of the close races. But the Democrats won just enough to flip the House.

And white voters lie to pollsters about their voting intentions when a black person is on the ballot.

Hopefully we'll pick up the governorship in Wisconsin, so that we get most of the upper midwest back.


11:05 - NBC calls two bellwetherupstate NY races for the Democrat, Brindini and Faso.
---------11 pm - In Maine, GOPer Poliquin holds a small lead over Democrat Golden.
In North Carolina, GOPer Ted Budd leads Democrat Kathy Manning with a majority of votes counted.-------
10:40 - Mixed results in NY and NJ so far. In upstate NY, with about 34% of the vote in, Democrat Faso leads GOPer Delgado by a substantial margin. The situtation is reversed in NJ, where GOPer MacArthur leads Democrat Kim. In PA, GOPer Brian Fitzpatrick also leads Democrat Scott Wallace.

10_30 - Georgia, along with Florida, look like the dark spots for the Democrats tonight.  In the House: in Georgia, Lucy McGrath  (D) has apparently lost against Karen Handel (R).

If the Dems can knock out Scott Walker in Wisconsin, the recompense may be the upper midwest coming back. And beating Kris Kobach in Kansas is also pretty sweet.

10:20 - In NC,  GOPer holds a slight lead over Demovrat McCready.
10 PM - EVERY VOTE COUNTS. With 94% of the vote in, about 250,000 total votes, in VA's 2nd District, Democrat Elaine Luria leads Republican Scott Taylor by 40 votes.

AAAAAND, NVC says she has won!

9:45 - It looks like a VA House district may flip after all.  With 97% of the vote counted, Spandberger leads Brat by about 2,000 votes. Brat would have to pick up something like 70% of the remaining votes to pull back ahead.

9:40 - With 34% of the vote in, MacArthur (r) leads Kim by over 20% in NJ.

9:30 Aaaand, not so fast in Virginia. Spanberger has just pulled slightly ahead of Brat, and Luria has pulled even with Taylor, each with about 90% of the vote counted.

Also, do the elctecion boards in NY, NJ, and PA know that this is election day and maybe they should start couting, you know. votes?

9 pm - More bad news out of Florida: it looks like Rick Scott is going to defeat incumbent democrat Bill Nelson. He is ahead by 1% with 80% of the vote counted.

And now NBC says the R's have also picked up the Indiana Senate seet by defedating Democrtic incumbent Joe Donnelly.

8:50 A little good news: NC-9 Dan McCready (D) vs. Mark Harris (R) - McCready holds a slight lead with 15% of the vote in.

And Menendez won the "vote for the crook, it's important" election in NJ

8:40 This is big, and it's bad news: it looks like DeSantis is beating Gillum in Florida.


FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell vs. Carlos Curbelo (R) - Democrats projected to flip the seat. This was a D slight lean.

UPDATE 8:20 -- all 3 of the close Virginia races are breaking against the Democrats:

VA-2 Elaine Luria (D) vs. Scott Taylor (R) - 8:15 with 60% of the vote in, Taylor leads 52%-48%
VA-5 Leslie Cockburn (D) vs. Denver Riggleman (R) -UPDATE 8 pm EST: NBC projects Riggleman victory. 8:20 with 80% of the vote in, Riggleman leads by 10% 
VA-7 Abigail Spanberger vs. Dave Brat (R) - Brat leading by 1% with 80% of the votes counted

Here are the East Coast races I am especially keeping an eye on.

It'll be a bad night for the Democrats if they don't win the following races:

NJ senator - Bob Menendez (D) vs. Bob HUgin (R)

Maine governor- Janet Miils (D) Shawn Mills (R)

In the House:
ME-2 Janet Golden (D) vs. Bruce Poloquin (R)
NY-19 Antonia Delgado (D) vs. John Faso (R) 

On the other hand, it'll be a long night for the GOP if they don't win these races:

In the House:
GA-8 Lucy McGrath  (D) vs. Karen Handel (R) 
NC-13 Kathy Manning (D) vs. Ted Budd (R) 
VA-2 Elaine Luria (D) vs. Scott Taylor (R) 

Here are the toss-ups and slight leans:

Toss up
Georgia - Stacey Abrams (D) vs. Brian Kemp (R)

D-slight favorite
Florida governor - Andrew Gillum (D)  vs. Ron DiSantis (R) 

D-slight favorite
Florida senator -  Bill Nelson (D) vs. Rick Scott (R)

House of Representatives

D-slight favorite
FL-26 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell vs. Carlos Curbelo (R)

NY-22 Anthony Brindisi (D) vs. Claudia Tenney (R)
NJ-3 Andy Kim (D) vs. Tom MacArthur (R) 

R-slight favorites
VA-5 Leslie Cockburn (D) vs. Denver Riggleman (R) -UPDATE 8 pm EST: NBC projects Riggleman victory
NC-9 Dan McCready (D) vs. Mark Harris (R) 
VA-7 Abigail Spanberger vs. Dave Brat (R) 
PA-1 Scott Wallace (D) vs. Brian Fitzpartrick (R) 
FL-15 Kristen Carlson (D) vs. Ross Spano (R)

I'll update these as we start to see results.