Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Even if the yield curve tightens no further, there will be consequences next year

 - by New Deal democrat

Both my posts from yesterday morning and today dealt with two aspects of the implications of the Fed raising rates.

The unifying idea beneath both of them is that the Fed's raising rates is already having consequences in the economy; consequences that are likely to be amplified should the Fed continue on its present path.

And we have a pretty good idea what those consequences are likely to be, beyond employment. Four times in the 1980s and 1990s the yield curve tightened to right about where it is now, without going into full inversion or heralding an ensuing recession.

I wrote what I hope is a tour de force laying out in much fuller form what is already likely in store for the economy next year, based only on where we are already now. The editors at Seeking Alpha seem to have liked it, because they made it an "Editors Pick," and here is the link where you can read it (and, yes, put a little jingle in my pocket by doing so!).