Friday, December 16, 2016

November housing permits continue positive news

 - by New Deal democrat

This is one of those days where the St. Louis FRED is slow adding the new data, so no snazzy graphs, BUT ...

This morning's housing data was a positive, even though it generally retreated from last month.

1. Single family permits made another post-recession high.
2. Total permits were over 1200/month for 3 months in a row, the first time that has happened in 9 years.
3. With the exception of the 3 month period including June of 2015, which saw big distortions due to multifamily permits issued in NYC to be included in an incentive program, this was the highest 3 month average for permits in 9 years.

The only negative was that actual housing starts retreated, and the 3 month average was no better than run of the mill for this year.  Since I favor the less volatile permits metric, and discount the NYC distortions, on balance this month was a significant positive.

I expect positive readings to continue for the next several months as last July's post-Brexit lows in interest rates continue to show up in new housing.  The negative whipsaw from the increase in rates since the US presidential election will start later.