Wednesday, November 9, 2016

The 2016 election economy: (nearly) final result

 - by New Deal democrat

About an hour ago as I type this, Hillary Clinton pulled ahead of Donald Trump in the popular vote, 59.2 M vs. 59.0 M.  

I have been saying for months that the economy forecast a narrow popular vote win for the incumbent party, on the order of 51%/49% (although with the recent good GDP and employment reports, I did up that to 52%/48%).  IF the current numbers hold up, that will have been pretty close.  As of this moment, the percentages are:

Clinton 47.7% 
Trump 47.5%
others 4.8%

Certainly closer than my personal prediction of 49.5%, 46.0%, and 4.5% respectively, but also certainly consistent with the plodding economic expansion, and well within the range of error of most economic electoral models -- which of course to not forecast the Electoral College.