Thursday, December 10, 2015

Gas prices finally break below last winter's low

 - by New Deal democrat

Last winter gas prices bottomed at $2.02.  For the last 2 weeks, gas prices flirted with, but never broke through, that low.

Until yesterday.  Average US gas prices are now sitting right at the $2.00 mark:

I don't know how much further they may fall. The bottom could be anytime between now and early February.  Since in the last 10 years, the seasonal top and bottom in gas prices has tended to be about $1 apart, in summer I thought the bottom might be at about $1.82.  Here's what I wrote about the summertime peak only being $0.80 above last winter's low back in July:
This tells us that the medium term trend in gas prices, taking out seasonality, is still down.  That suggests that gas prices are going to fall below $2/gallon this winter.
 We'll probably continue below the $2 mark in the next few days, but I doubt we'll make it all the way down to my original forecast low.

But this does show a continued deflationary background to the economy, and a continued slight boost to most consumers' wallets.