Thursday, March 27, 2014

Initial claims return to post-recession lows; gross domestic income improves

 - by New Deal democrat

Just a couple of quick hits about data released this morning.

First of all, initial claims, at 311,000, caused the 4 week moving average to decline to 317,650, which is the lowest reading since the Great Recession with the exception of 3 weeks last September (and before that, October 2007!).  This bodes well for the unemployment rate in the March or April jobs report, since initial jobless claims tend to lead the unemploymeet rate in the payrolls report.

In the rear view mirror, fourth quarter gross domestic income was reported at +2.7%.  Gross domestic income is the mirror image of gross domestic product, and it is generally thought that GDP resolves in the direction of GDI.  Although "old" information, it confirms that we have not been on the verge of contraction.

The good initial claims report in particular is potent evidence that the wintertime slump has ended.