Friday, June 18, 2010

Yesterday's Market




Let's start with the importance of tech. Notice that prices of the QQQQ are now above the 50 day EMA and key resistance (a) which is now technical support. Also note that tech has advanced above the 50 day EMA (b) using the 50 day EMA as technical support. This is the farthest that any of the key averages have advanced. As such, tech is "leading the way" higher. Keep your eye on NASDAQ.


Unlike the QQQQs, the SPYs have found resistance at the 50 day EMA (b). In other words, the SPYs still have a technical hump to overcome, which explains the importance of the QQQQs to the overall market.


From a daily perspective, the SPYs opened yesterday by gapping higher (a) but then falling. They then spent most of the day in "barbed wire" -- the situation that occurs when prices are entangled with the EMAs and the EMAs are in a very tight configuration. However, note that prices had a late day rally (c) on increasing volume -- always a good development.


On the longer chart (10 days) notice the SPYs had a double bottom (b) followed by a strong raly (b). In that context, yesterday's prices were a sideways move (c).




One of the key markets I've been watching is the long-end of the Treasury curve. This part of the market has benefited from a flight to safety -- as traders became concerned about the EU situation they purchased US Treasuries because of their perceived safety. We've now seen tow false tops -- the island reversal and now the triangle. Prices for the IEFs and TLTs moved higher yesterday, indicating the flight from safety will last at least another few days. This means the current stock rally still has issues for some traders.


The technicals of the Treasury market do show weakness, however. The MACD is declining and has given a sell signal (a). The A/D line shows money in general is flowing out and (b). The CMF is weak as well, although it has just turned positive.



Finally we have industrial metals. While this area of the market has been in a rally for the last week or so (a and b), it is now selling off in a standard correction.