Monday, May 10, 2010

April 2010 Leading Economic Indicators

- by New Deal democrat

The Leading Economic Indicators will probably print positive again for April

Most of the components of the Leading Economic Indicators are now known for April, and several revisions for March are also known, and it looks like it will be another decent month:

The yield curve is still positive but a little less so +0.30
Aggregate hours in manufacturing up again +0.11
ISM deliveries up +0.08
Stocks' 3 month performance up thru April +0.07
Building permits revised up for March, +0.08
Durable goods' nondefense orders March revision +.0.05
Consumer nondurables for March revised up+0.05

Jobless claims turned slightly negative, -0.05
Real M2 looks like it is still slightly negative again, -0.05
Consumer sentiment deteriorated yet again -0.03

Bottom line: it looks like April Leading Economic Indicators plus March revisions will net about +0.6, the thirteenth positive reading in a row. Because this increase is less than April 2009's, the YoY figure will decline slightly, but still up about 11%.

This means that economic growth will almost certainly extend into the third quarter.

Given the swoon in the stock market in the last two weeks and the expiration of the housing credit, however, May could be very interesting.