Thursday, September 25, 2008

Thursday Oil Market Round-Up

On the weekly chart, note the following:

-- Oil broke the 1+ year upward sloping trend line a few weeks ago. This indicates the major rally that has been moving oil higher is over.

-- The 10 and 20 week SMAs are both moving lower

-- The 10 week SMA crossed below the 20 week SMA

-- The 10 week SMA is about to cross below the 50 week SMA

-- Prices are below all the SMAs

-- Prices are using the 50 week SMA as upward resistance rather than support

On the daily chart notice the following:

-- The 10, 20 and 50 day SMAs are moving lower

-- The shorter SMAs are below the longer SMAs

-- Prices have moved through the 10 and 20 week SMA. However, this is due to a huge market problem caused by the bail-out issue. The assumption was if the bail-out goes through the US economy will stabilize which will increase oil demand. Now it loos as though traders are re-thinking that idea.

-- Prices are still using the downward sloping trend line as resistance.

Bottom line: these are still bearish charts.