Wednesday, June 25, 2008

The Fed's Statement

From the Fed's website:

Recent information indicates that overall economic activity continues to expand, partly reflecting some firming in household spending. However, labor markets have softened further and financial markets remain under considerable stress. Tight credit conditions, the ongoing housing contraction, and the rise in energy prices are likely to weigh on economic growth over the next few quarters.

Translation: The economy grew .9% in the first quarter. It's something. But it's harder to find a job, it's harder to get a loan, housing still sucks and it's really expensive at the pump. These are most definitely not good things and they will make it hard to make money going forward.

The Committee expects inflation to moderate later this year and next year. However, in light of the continued increases in the prices of energy and some other commodities and the elevated state of some indicators of inflation expectations, uncertainty about the inflation outlook remains high.

If we cross our fingers and think good thoughts, inflation will come down (We'll ignore the fact that UPS and FedEx have warned on earnings because of high prices and that Dow Chemical raised prices 25% because of inflationary pressure). But eneregy prices are really stubborn right now, so we'll keep thinking good thoughts and hope the inflation comes down.

The substantial easing of monetary policy to date, combined with ongoing measures to foster market liquidity, should help to promote moderate growth over time. Although downside risks to growth remain, they appear to have diminished somewhat, and the upside risks to inflation and inflation expectations have increased. The Committee will continue to monitor economic and financial developments and will act as needed to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability.

We've already thrown a ton of money at the problem, so stop complaining. Because we've put a ton of money out on the street like a cheap hoar we don't expect things to get really bad. But man, energy is really expensive and it could be a problem down the line. In fact, people are actually noticing the energy prices are increasing

That's about the gist of it.