Friday, October 19, 2007
This is what a bearish chart looks like. The market gapped down on the open on heavy volume, steadied a bit, than continued dropping in the afternoon on heavy volume. The market closed near lows of the day. Traders obviously didn't want to hold anything over the weekend for fear that some news item would come out over the next two days.
This is a 10-day 5 minute chart. Notice that the SPYs have had 5 big sell-offs on heavy volume since last Thursday. That is not a very good sign at all. The SPYs have a clear downward bias right now.
Here is the daily chart of the SPYs. Notice the average is now right at the 50 day SMA after having blown through the 10 and 20 day SMA in quick succession. And yes -- the SPYs have formed a double top (which I have been on the lookout for over the last wee). Notice that today's action occurred on higher volume, indicating the selling momentum is increasing.
The 10-day QQQQ chart shows a different story than the SPYs. The QQQQs have had four large sell-offs on large volume -- two of which occurred today. The sell-off in red didn't have a huge volume spike. In addition, the QQQQs have traded in a range. However, the QQQQs closed below that range today. They have done this over the last 10 days, however, so today's move is not a guarantee of a further drop. Also remember that tech is the market's golden child right now.
However, on the QQQQs daily chart we see a clear trend break. The close moved through the 10-day SMA and is now resting at the 20 day SMA. Plus we had heavy selling as indicated by the high volume.