Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Chicago PMI Drops Slightly

Here is a link to the full report.

The overall index dropped from 48.8 to 47.9.

Production decreased slightly, but new orders increased slightly.

Inventories increased in a big way from 38.5 to 56.5 -- the largest gain in 30 years.

Here's a big phrase from the report: overall demand down 28% - 30% and sales incentives are high. When you have to pay people to buy your products you have problems.

While this report isn't completely recessionary, it is leaning in that direction. In addition, we have two downward trends in the overall business barometer number. The first started at the beginning of 2005, and the second started in mid-2006. Things still appear to be moving down, although I wouldn't call this a recessionary stage yet. But we're pretty close.