A “quick and dirty” look at anticipated consumer inflation in July

 

 - by New Deal democrat

Tomorrow we’ll get the CPI report for July. At first I thought this might resume the upward spike of April and May — but maybe not.

My “quick and dirty” way to create a back of the envelope estimate of consumer inflation is to divide the change in gas prices (conservatively) by 16, and then add 0.15% for underlying upward pressure in non-energy areas. What is somewhat surprising is that, *on average,* gas prices declined -2.9% in July, from $4.05 to $3.93/gallon. Dividing by 16 gives us a decline of 0.2%, so if we add 0.15% to that, we get a change in CPI of between 0 and -0.1% (red in the graph below), compared with actual inflation through June (blue):

The Cleveland Fed, which has an inflation nowcast, is also expecting somewhat subdued inflation, at a 0.2% monthly increase:

This translates into a 3.5% YoY increase:

Which, following up my post yesterday, would at least be less bad for real nonsupervisory payrolls, which would decline -0.1% for the month, but remain higher by 4.1% YoY, and so even if contracting from their peak at the beginning of this year would not be signaling any imminent recession.

In July, the existing home market remained in its suboptimal equilibrium

 

 - by New Deal democrat

I wrote last month in my summary of that existing home sales report: “The housing market has reached a new, suboptimal equilibrium in sales, construction, prices, and inventory. Until some new positive or negative shock occurs (like a surprise new Fed hiking regimen), expect little change in this important leading sector of the economy, which is needless to say neutral for forecasting purposes.” 

While existing home sales are much less important in terms of economic impact, they are about 90% of the market, and generally trend in accord with new home sales. And, like new home sales, they are very much downstream of mortgage rates, which have been in a range of 6% to 7% for almost all of the past four years:

Although with the Iran war they have risen from 5.99% in February to 6.69% last week, they are still well within that range.

So, unsurprisingly, while existing home sales in July declined a seasonally adjusted -1.7% monthly to 4.06 million on an annualized basis, this is almost exactly in the middle of its range of between 3.85 - 4.30 annualized for the past three+ years:

If sales follow mortgage rates, prices follow sales, and unsurprisingly with rangebound sales, prices on a YoY basis have been relatively calm as well. These are not seasonally adjusted, so we look at them YoY. And since February of last year, there has been no YoY comparison higher than 3.0%. in July the YoY comparison was +2.0%. (For the record, on a monthly basis they declined -2.0%, but this is the typical seasonal pattern):

Again, this is similar to both Case Shiller (blue) and FHFA (red) repeat home sales indexes and the median price of new homes (gold), which are up only 1.1%, 2.2%, and down -3.0% YoY respectively:

This year the most lagging metric, inventory, has also fallen in line. In July, the YoY% change in existing home inventories was -0.6%. By contrast, as recently as last December it was up 7.9% YoY, and in March was up 4.5% YoY:

Again, we see similar flatness in YoY new home inventories (blue), down -2.4%, the active listing count of homes for sale nationwide (red), up 1.9%, and the new listing count (gold), up 2.4%:

So my conclusion this month is the same as last month. While there may be some slightly upward pressure on prices, with the background financial fundamentals the same, the existing home market has reached a suboptimal equilibrium, with something like a -500,000 decline in housing inventory available compared with ten years ago; and rangebound sales as well.

Scenes, both positive and negative, from the July employment report

 

 - by New Deal democrat

As per usual, there’s no economic news today, the first Monday after the employment report. So let’s dig into some detail about what was naughty and what was nice from Friday’s anemic report.

Let me start with the naughty, and in particular the -50,000 job losses (seasonally adjusted) in local education. While this is in large part an issue with difficult seasonal adjustments in the summer when many staff are temporarily laid off, Ben Casselman highlighted that it isn’t the only reason; school employment has been swan diving for a few months:

To which Joshua Goodman makes an excellent point:

I looked up these funds, and sure enough, they were paid out to school districts over a three year period that ended in September 2024. Funds allocated had to be spent by March of this year. So it looks like Joshua Goodman is correct.

But of course losses in education jobs weren’t the only negative point. After stabilizing in 2024 and 2025, the YoY% change in average hourly wages (blue) have also been decelerating sharply this year, even as inflation (red) has accelerated:

Historically wage growth decelerates during sharp slowdowns and recessions; and having inflation pick up even more has never been a good sign:

Additionally, aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls (blue) increased less than 0.1% in July:

Should consumer prices increase more than 0.1% in July, this will mark another downturn in real payrolls, which peaked in January. This would be an important yellow flag for recession. On the other hand, the real number has historically tended to turn negative YoY within a month or two before or after a recession begins, and almost certainly that will not happen this month unless there is a very sharp increase in consumer inflation on the order of 0.8% or more, which is unlikely:

And of course total employment has grown only 373,000 in the past 15 months, for an average of 25,000 per month. As shown in the graph below, employment (red) has increased only 0.3% since the end of 2024. Of the other three noteworthy monthly series tracked by the NBER for recession dating, real personal income less transfers (orange) has actually declined since then, having peaked in summer 2025:

Although there may have been a “mini-recession” last summer and autumn, while the consumer-side metrics as per above have stalled or declined, the economy has been kept out of recession by the producer side, via industrial production (blue) and real sales (green).

In addition to the bad data, there was some mixed data in the form of aggregate hours worked, which declined -0.1% for the month. Historically, hours decline more intensely than jobs, and turn negative YoY before jobs do as well:

But here’s what the last several years look like:

Despite the monthly decline, on a YoY basis hours have improved compared with the total number of jobs, something that has typically happened during recoveries from slowdowns or recessions.

There was also some positive data. First, as forecast by the declines in jobless claims (Blue, right scale), the unemployment rate (red, left scale) declined to an 18 month low of 4.1%:

Additionally, the leading sectors of manufacturing employment (red), construction (gold) and goods production as a whole (blue) all saw increases in the month:

And the average workweek in manufacturing increased to a new post-pandemic high:

Of course, much of this is tied to the AI data center construction Boom, so cross your fingers that it does not prove to be a bubble. I do think that this positive trend will have to reverse before any recession might begin.

Weekly Indicators for August 3 - 7 at Seeking Alpha

 

 - by New Deal democrat

My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha.

The choice of what to highlight this week was very easy, because it was practically screamed from this following graph:

Corporate profits were through the roof in Q2, driven not just by AI-related companies but even more by the tidal wave of windfall profits by the energy companies, whose costs remained the same while gas prices skyrocketed. Corporate profits increased 22% in this quarter alone, and were almost 50% higher (!) than just one year ago, which itself had been an all-time record. 

Earlier this week that “right now, the stock market *is* the economy,” because it is the surge in stock prices which is driving much of consumer spending. Between these profits and the punk jobs report yesterday, that is even moreso the case.

As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to all of the economic data, and reward me with a penny or two towards my next lunch excursion.

July jobs report: school’s out for summer! Plus many other indicators take a sabbatical as well

 

 - by New Deal democrat

My Big Theme for the past few months has been that the AI Boom (or possibly bubble) is counterbalancing a stagnant or even shallowly recessionary rest of the economy. After three good reports in a row, the June employment report had been very weak, and July was even worse - but with a MAJOR caveat. Take out the -49,600 loss in local government education jobs, and we eked out a +27,000 gain for the month — still pretty poor. But the goods production portion of the economy continues to be a bright spot.

Below is my in depth synopsis.

HEADLINES:

• -23,000 jobs lost. Private sector jobs increased 30,000, while government jobs subtracted -53,000. As per the above, almost all of those government losses were in local education, and almost certainly because of the difficulty with seasonal adjustments as there are always big layoffs in this sector for the summer months. The three month average rose declined to a meager 20,000.
• The pattern of downward revisions to previous months once again occurred this month. May was revised lower by -66,000, and June was revised lower by -37,000, for a total decline of -103,000.
• The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, declined once again, by -87000 jobs. On a YoY basis, this series was negative for the sixth month in a row, now sharply down by -963,000 jobs, or over -80,000 per month
• The U3 unemployment rate declined another -0.1% to 4.1%. 
• The U6 underemployment rate declined -0.1% to 7.9%.
• Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now declined -125,000 to 5.920 million, the 2nd lowest number in the past 12 months..

Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession

These are leading sectors for the economy overall, and help us gauge how much the post-pandemic employment boom is shading towards a downturn vs. rebounding. These were almost entirely positive.

• The average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, was unchanged at 41.7 hours, the highest number in 5 years, just surpassing its 2021 peak.

• Manufacturing jobs rose 5,000, the 4th increase in the last 12 months.
• Truck driving reversed its decline ever so slightly, by +100.
• Construction jobs rose +22,000.
• But Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, declined -500, taking out their interim low from last April, and setting a new 3 year low.
• Goods producing jobs as a whole rose +25,000. 

• Temporary jobs, which had declined by over -650,000 since late 2022, rose by +3,400, continuing to improve from their post-pandemic low set last October.
• The number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or less declined -222,000 to 1.960 million, the lowest number in over 3 years.

Wages of non-managerial workers 

• Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.04, or +0.1%, to $32.40, for a YoY gain of +3.2%, except for one month the lowest since December 2019. This is also lower than the 3.5% YoY inflation rate as of May.

Aggregate hours and wages: 

• The index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers *declined* another -0.1%, and is up 0.8% YoY, about average for the past 12 months.

• The index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers rose only +0.1%, and is up 4.1% YoY, tied for the second-lowest comparison for the past 5 years, and only 0.6% above the YoY inflation rate through June.

Other significant data:

• Professional and business employment rose for the fourth month in a row, by +18,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs. This remains above its low from last October, and has turned higher YoY as well.
• The employment population ratio declined another -0.1% to 58.9%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020, and its lowest since October 2021.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate declined -0.1% to 61.4% , vs. 63.4% in February 2020, and the lowest since February 2021. IMPORTANT: both the EPOP and LFPR are greatly affected by the retiring Boomer population. In the prime age 25-54 demographic, they are virtually unchanged.

SUMMARY

Lat month I described June’s report a “a big stumble.” If so, on the surface at least, this month was a faceplant. It was the 5th absolute decline in the past 12 months. Only 316,000 jobs, or an average of 26,000 per month, have been added in that time. This is just barely holding its head above water, even with the net loss in immigration.

That being said, the report was not nearly as bad as the headline. As indicated above, almost -50,000 of the -53,000 decline was accounted for by local government education jobs. Big layoffs in this sector happen every summer, and are notoriously difficult to seasonally adjust for, and thus there are often one or more outliers during those months. But as per the discussion above,  almost all of the leading indicators in the report increased in manufacturing, construction, truck transportation, and goods production in general. Further, as per my weekly discussion about jobless claims, the unemployment rate did decline another -0.1% to a 12 month low.

But there were other negatives as well, with very weak average and aggregate wage growth, and another actual decline in hours worked. It is possible that, once we have the July CPI number, that real aggregate payrolls will have turned negative YoY, which would be a powerful recession warning signal.

Leaving aside the education jobs issue, I would describe this report as being just on the plus side of being dead in the water.

Very positive “superlow” new jobless claims forecast an unemployment rate under 4% in the next few months

 

 - by New Deal democrat

The superlow number of job losses in the country continues to be one of the two most powerfully positive signals for the entire economy.

Last week only 199,000 people filed for new jobless benefits, the third week in a row that the number was fewer than 200,000. The four week moving average declined -4,500 to 198,750, the first time that number has been below 200,000 since briefly in 2022. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 24,000 to 1.801 million:

Aside from those several weeks in 2022, the only other time in the entire 60 year history of this data series that this number has been under 200,000 was during 1968 and 1969, when the US population was only about 1/2 of what it is today:

These are just extremely powerful positive numbers.

As per usual, for forecasting purposes, the YoY% changes are more important; and here, initial claims were down -11.9%, the four week moving average down -10.1%, and continuing claims down -8.3%:

This is about the very best comparison in the entire post-pandemic period.

Unsurprisingly, when we put this together with stock prices for the “quick and dirty” forecasting method, we also see that this is about the most positive the two have been in tandem:

Finally, with the July jobs report due tomorrow, here is our final look at what initial and continuing claims suggest about the direction of the unemployment rate over the next several months:

Earlier this week I read that Goldman is forecasting a 0.1% increase in the unemployment rate in tomorrow’s report. I suppose that is possible, given the upward blip in new claims in June. But the last time new and continuing unemployment claims were at this level in 2023 and early 2024, the unemployment rate was 3.7%-3.9%. And that is the direction the unemployment rate is likely to take in the next few months.