- by New Deal democrat
My question over the past year has been whether “decleration” would turn into “deterioration.” For a “soft landing,” deceleration would need to end, and the numbers stabilize, vs. continuing to deteriorate towards an actual downturn. With the stupefying economic moves by the new Administration, looking for hard data indicating the onset of a recession must also be a top concern.
Below is my in depth synopsis.
- 228,000 jobs added. Private sector jobs increased 209,000. Government jobs increased by 19,000. The three month average was an increase of +152,000, the lowest gain since last summer.
- The pattern of downward revisions to previous months continued this month. January was revised downward by -14,000, and February uary was revised downward by -34,000, for a net decrease of -48,000.
- The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report, increased by 201,000 jobs. On a YoY basis, this series increased 2,083,000 jobs, or an average of 174,000 monthly.
- The U3 unemployment rate rose another 0.1% to 4.2%. Since the three month average is 4.1% vs. a low of 3.5% for the three month average in the past 12 months, or an increase of 0.6%, this means the “Sahm rule” has been triggered once again.
- The U6 underemployment rate declined -0.1%, to 7.9% from its 3+year high in February, which was its highest level since October 2021.
- Further out on the spectrum, those who are not in the labor force but want a job now also rose another 22,000 to 5.915 million, the highest number since July 2021.
- the average manufacturing workweek, one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, rose 0.1 hours to 41.1 hours, This is the highest reading since May 2022, although it remains down -0.5 hours from its 2021 peak of 41.6 hours.
- Manufacturing jobs increased 1,000. This series has been firmly in decline, although it *may* have leveled off in the past six months. The three month average is only slightly above last month’s, which was the lowest since mid year 2022.
- Within that sector, motor vehicle manufacturing jobs fell -200.
- Truck driving rebounded sharply, up 9,600.
- Construction jobs increased another 13,000.
- Residential construction jobs, which are even more leading, rose by amother 3,100 to another new post-pandemic high.
- Goods producing jobs as a whole increased 12,000, and are at their highest level in 17 years! This is especially important, because these typically decline before any recession occurs. On a YoY% basis, these jobs are only up 0.3%, which is very anemic although not quite recessionary.
- Temporary jobs, which have declined by over -550,000 since late 2022, declined by another -6,400. Nevertheless this month remained above their October 2024 low, so this may still suggest that the bottom in this metric is in.
- the number of people unemployed for 5 weeks or fewer rose another 25,000 to 2,362,000, vs. its 12 month high of 2,465,000 last August.
- Average Hourly Earnings for Production and Nonsupervisory Personnel increased $.05, or +0.2%, to $30.96, for a YoY gain of +3.9%, the lowest YoY% gain since spring of 2021. On the other hand, Importantly, this continues to be well above the 2.8% YoY inflation rate as of last month.
- The index of aggregate hours worked for non-managerial workers rose a sharp 0.6% to a new record high. This measure is also up 1.1% YoY, right in line with its average for the past 12+ months.
- The index of aggregate payrolls for non-managerial workers also rose a sharp 0.9%, and is up 5.1% YoY, slightly above its average YoY rate in the past 18 months. This series should also increase compared with inflation, indicating a continuation in the ability of households to increase consumption.
- Professional and business employment increased 3,000. These tend to be well-paying jobs. This series has been down YoY since September 2023, and is now -0.2% YoY, which in the past 80+ years - until now - has almost *always* meant recession. On the other hand it has stabilized since last summer, vs. being down -0.9% YoY last April.
- The employment population ratio was unchanged at 59.9%, vs. 61.1% in February 2020.
- The Labor Force Participation Rate increased 0.1% to 62.5%, vs. 63.4% in February 2020.