Thursday, September 22, 2022

Jobless claims: the positive trend continues


 - by New Deal democrat

For yet another week, initial jobless claims continued their reversal from had been in an almost relentless uptrend from spring through early August.

This week initial claims rose -5,000 to 213,000 from a revised 3 month low of 208,000, while the 4 week average declined another -6,000 to a new 3 month low of 216,750. Continuing claims, which lag somewhat, declined 22,000 to 1,379,000:

I have expected continuing claims, which lag slightly, to reverse lower, and they have, from a revised high of 1,437,000 on August 20.

Once again, this is almost certainly a positive side-effect of lower gas prices.

That being said, the long term outlook in next year remains negative; and has only worsened in the last several months, and was not helped at all by yesterday’s Fed rate hike.