Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Case Shiller Down, Consumer Confidence Up



From Standard and Poor's

Data through March 2010, released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that the U.S. National Home Price Index fell 3.2% in the first quarter of 2010, but remains above its year-earlier level. In March, 13 of the 20 MSAs covered by S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices and both monthly composites were down although the two composites and 10 MSAs showed year-over-year gains. Housing prices rebounded from crisis lows, but recently have seen renewed weakness as tax incentives are ending and foreclosures are climbing.


Let's take a look at the data:


The index rose to 0% change but has since moved lower. In addition,



The majority of metropolitan areas saw a price decrease last month. However, the mix of decreases and increases appears to be pretty mild. The composite move of 10 cities was -.4% and the composite move of 20 cities was -.5%.



Consumers gained more confidence in May than projected as a recovering U.S. economy raised expectations hiring will pick up in coming months.

The Conference Board’s confidence index rose to 63.3, exceeding all estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and the highest level in two years, according to a report from the New York-based private research group. Other figures showed home prices rose less than projected in the year through March.

Employment gains in five of the past six months may be helping overcome the damage from slumping stock prices as investors fret the European debt crisis will slow global growth. Meantime, the looming end of a government homebuyer tax credit signals property values may stagnate for the rest of the year as foreclosures mount.

“I’m relatively optimistic that we’ll get through the European debt crisis without dire economic consequences, but the jury is still out on that one,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. Home prices “are going to drag along the bottom for a while until we get a better handle on the overhang” of inventories.


Here is a chart of the data:


While the improvement is good (and welcome) note that confidence is still at low levels and needs to rise further.