Tuesday, October 30, 2007
The SPYS opened lower and dropped. They rallied back to their opening, but then fell again near the close. Notice at the end the long candles and heavy volume. This indicates that traders were shedding positions before the close, not wanting to hold anything overnight. This indicates nervousness. Although the Fed won't release their interest rate decision until tomorrow afternoon, traders are probably concerned about an overnight fed related development.
On the daily chart notice there are six straight small candles in a row. This indicates there is a lack of strong sentiment in either way pushing the market in any direction. Instead, it looks like traders started to become concerned about the upcoming Fed meeting and have decided to sit on the sidelines until after the Fed releases their interest rate policy statement.
The QQQQs are on a different track. Because they are mostly related to technology -- and technology isn't mortgage related -- QQQQ traders are looking for further gains. However, like the SPYs we see a large sell-off at the end of the day on heavy volume.
Unlike the SPYs, there are a lot of bullish points on the QQQQ chart. All of the SMAs are moving higher and the shorter SMAs are higher than the longer SMAs. In addition, prices are above the SMAs which will pull the SMAs higher. Also note that prices consolidated for about a week and a half. The only problem with this chart is the declining volume over the last few days as the market went higher. However, I think Fed nervousness is the primary reason for this. If the Fed cuts tomorrow, I would expect the QQQQs to move higher.