I wanted to make a brief comment on this morning's report on housing permits and starts. Bottom line: this was a very good report.
Here's why:
- 3 month rolling average of single family permits at a new post-recession high
- 3 month rolling average of starts at a new post-recession high
- 3 month rolling average of total permits less than 1% off post recession high from 18 months ago that was caused by a NYC-induced spike
Total permits improved while single family home permits declined slightly from last month's post-recession high for a single month, due to a big jump in multi-family permits.
I do expect housing growth to slow down and possibly stop by about mid-year due to both higher interest rates and negative YoY real wage growth. But in the meantime, housing is doing well, and this will contribute to good general economic growth throughout this year.
