Monday, December 8, 2008
Let's start with a really long view. Note the market has
-- Wiped out the gains from the 2003 - 2007 rally
-- Is trading far below the 200 week SMA
-- Appears to have bounced off a bottom established in the 2002 - 2003 trough
-- The last few weekly bars have occurred on incredibly high volume.
Notice the following on the 3 month chart:
-- Prices are in a downward sloping channel
-- The horizontal lines at the bottom of the chart are from the 2002 - 2003 lows. Prices bounced off the lows and then rallied higher
-- Notice the technical importance of prices in the 83 - 85 area. Prices have found a great deal of support in this area
-- Prices are below the 200 day SMA
-- The 20, 50 and 200 day SMAs are moving lower
-- With the exception of the 10 day SMA all the SMAs are moving lower
-- The 10 day SMA is about to cross over the 20 day SMA. However, this has happened recently with little follow-through. What maters more is when the 20 day SMA starts to move higher -- that is, the 10 day SMA remains above the 20 day SMA for a period of time and the 20 day SMA moves higher as a result.