Monday, August 20, 2007

The Central Problem We Face

From Bill Gross:

Those looking for clues to the extent of the spreading fungus should understand that there really is no comprehensive data to allow anyone to know how many subprimes actually rest in individual institutional portfolios.

In my opinion, this is the biggest issue the markets face right now. We simply have no idea how many bad loans are out there. Just as importantly, we don't know where they are. As a result, the entire financial system is being held hostage by the fear that the next shoe could drop at any minute. This acting as incredibly strong resistance to any upward moves in the market.