The short version is the markets remain mired in a trading range.
The SPYs have been trading between roughly 132 and 138 for the last month. Also notice that prices and the short-term SMAs are still bunched up, indicating a lack of overall direction. While we've had some volume increases over the last three days, overall the average volume range has been pretty constant.
The QQQQs are consolidating in a triangle pattern. Prices and the SMAs are jumbled together as well and there hasn't been a big volume move one way or the over for most of this time. Volume has picked up the last two days, but I'm not convinced that is anything more than the "Ambac" effect.
The IWMS have broken below a trend line in a consolidation pattern, but they really haven't meaningfully moved since then. Usually traders would look to a move like this as a shorting opportunity. But this move hasn't impressed at all.
3 comments:
Don't you find it interesting that for 3 days in a row, despite lousy economic news, the market has refused to buckle, and in all three days has had a rally in the last hour?
It is interesting. The market's recent "stability" feels like a mix of trading software algorithmns and bullish trader sentiment, and asset inflation than a result of an overall strong economy. And don't forget people are expecting another Fed rate cut of > 0.5%.
Buyt the stats clearly show the economy is all but in a textbook recession. What will send the market one way or another?
Positive growth over the next two quarters followed a Fed rate increase may change this bear to a bull.
What might cause another fall? When the first quarter of negative GDP growth is reported, and/or a major bank folds. Or a string of corporate bankruptcies comes in.
By any measure, interesting times ahead!
I think samsin is right - the market is looking for clear signals right now. Probably sustained clear signals.
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