11 minutes ago
With respect to the "fiscal cliff", ... no deal means that the long-run finances of the U.S. government are automatically rebalanced and the tax system becomes more progressive--major wins--at the cost of some risk of a small recession in 2013--a significant loss, but not an overwhelming one given the long-run stakes.The source for DeLong's "small recession" remark is this study [pdf] by the Congressional Budget Office showing that the tax hikes and automatic spending cuts making up the "fiscal cliff" will cause the U.S. economy to contract at an annual rate of 1.3% for the first half of 2013, and the unemplpoyemtn rate would rise to about 91%. However, economic growth would resume in the second half of the year to 2.3%.
|week ending||48 state % of total||4 weeks prior % of total||Yr ago % of total|
|week ending||48 state nonseasonal #||weekly seasonal adjustment||seasonally adjusted at 91.1%||seasonally adjusted at 90.7%||average after seasonal adjustment|