Monday, February 26, 2007

Metals May Be Looking At a Summer Rally

Here are three charts that may indicate metals are thinking about a summer rally:

Here's a chart for copper:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

This is the weakest of the three charts, largely because of large sell-off and gapping down formation. The gap down could be a selling-exhaustion gap, indicating the last of the sellers finally got out of the metal at the beginning of the year. Using Gann style accumulation analysis, this means the only buyers will be longer term investors who are looking at making a long-term play. If that is the case, than copper has formed a base here and is looking to rally.

Here's a chart for Palladium:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

We saw consolidation in the latter part of last year in a classic triangle trading pattern. This period essentially shook-out the positions from the previous rally and allowed other longer-term players to accumulate longer-term positions. Either way, the 6-month consolidation helped to establish a base for a summer rally.

Here's the chart for Silver:

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting

This chart's analysis mirrors that for Palladium, although the triangle consolidation is a bit wider.

All of these charts are possibly signaling an upward move. Remember we still have China and India on-line for very strong growth rates, increasing demand for base metals.

2 comments:

Robert D Feinman said...

It's your site so you can focus on whatever you find interesting, but reading tea leaves (oops, I meant charts) has long been shown to be worth nothing for predicting the future.

Let's suppose that one could actually infer something from past behavior. Then quickly everyone would know what the charts meant and the smart money would move before the pattern became fully clear. These actions would then change what would have happened as predicted by the theory, making the theory useless.

On the other hand charts of economic data can show trends and can be useful for helping to frame a situation.

bonddad said...

Fundamental analysis tells you what to invest in.

Technical analysis tells you when.

However, no analysis provides a holy grail. Technical analysis can increase the probability of success. I've seen companies that were technically undervalued from a fundamental perspective languish for years as well.