- by New Deal democrat
As I have done since the beginning of the government shutdown, the unadjusted number of initial and continuing claims can be calculated based on reporting by the States, plus DC, and Puerto Rico. Then, by applying the same adjustment as was used for the same week last year, the seasonally adjusted number can also be estimated closely as well.
Indeed, since my forecasting method relies on the YoY% changes, it is almost never an affected by that seasonality.
So tabulated, for the week ending November 2, unadjusted initial claims totaled 216,238 vs. 212,743 in 2024, an increase of 1.6%.
Last year this week the seasonal multiplier was *1.0388. Applying it gives us an estimated seasonally adjusted number of 225,000.
We can similarly calculate the four week moving average, since the last four weeks of claims were 224,000, 230,000, and 220,000, as well as this week’s 225,000. That gives us an average of 224,750, which is -2,000, or -0.9% lower than the number of 226,7500 one year ago. Of note, this is the last week in which the 2024 comparison will be affected by the hurricanes that temporarily depressed claims for several weeks in October. Excluding that week, the average of the three last weeks this year is slightly higher.
Using the same methodology, unadjusted continuing claims for the week ending October 25 totaled 1,711,947 vs. 1,646,920 last year, an increase of 3.9%.
The seasonal adjustment for the applicable week last year was *1.14152. Applying it gives us an estimate of 1.954 million continuing claims, or -7,000 lower than one week ago. Still, continuing claims during the government shutdown have all been close to their highest levels since 2021, which was 1.968 million this past July.
For graphic comparison, here are initial claims (blue), the four week average (red), and continuing claims (gold) all normed to 0 as of this week’s tabulation, compared with their readings in the past two years before the shutdown:
As with the past several weeks, absent hurricane distortions this continues the general neutral trend of initial and continuing claims, higher than one year ago but much less than 10% higher, forecasting a weakly expanding economy for the next several months.
