To me, the economy for the last year or so has feel like I'm at the back of a roller coaster going up the hill. I know it drops off at some point, but I can't see when. I'm suspecting that we finally just started heading down.
Down cycles in the economy always have trigger points. That everything goes up for a while, then cracks begin to show (though arguably the cracks never went away this time). Invariably the handwriting is on the wall long before that point, but things continue to go up by a kind of psychological momentum; ultimately everybody wants the market to go up. But then some chain of events connect together and suddenly everybody goes, "this is it", and things start heading down hill.
I don't think the fact it was down big that is the problem, it's that the system broke down, orders weren't getting through and people getting bad quotes.
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The Bonddad Economic History Project
At the beginning of 2012, I decided to start looking at the actual, statistical history of the US economy starting in 1950. The reason is simple: to find out what really happened. So, when you see title of a post that begins with a year such as 1957, followed by "employment" or "Fed policy: you know what it's for. You can also access the information by typing in BE for Bonddad econ and a year to find information on a particular year.
Here is a link to pages that contain links to all the posts on the years listed.
This blog contains opinions and observations. It is not professional advice in any way, shape or form and should not be construed that way. In other words, buyer beware.
6 comments:
To me, the economy for the last year or so has feel like I'm at the back of a roller coaster going up the hill. I know it drops off at some point, but I can't see when. I'm suspecting that we finally just started heading down.
Down cycles in the economy always have trigger points. That everything goes up for a while, then cracks begin to show (though arguably the cracks never went away this time). Invariably the handwriting is on the wall long before that point, but things continue to go up by a kind of psychological momentum; ultimately everybody wants the market to go up. But then some chain of events connect together and suddenly everybody goes, "this is it", and things start heading down hill.
I think we may be having that moment today.
Holy Cow
I just watched the DOW fall from -289 to - 464 in about 5 minutes.
OK, is there a bottom?
etrade can't fill my orders, something is wrong.
tried to buy a big cap oil that was down a lot, couldn't fill and couldn't cancel either.
I caution everyone not to read too much into one day in the market. After all it was not that long that the right wing was publishing things like this
http://cartoonbox.slate.com/hottopic/?image=16&topicid=17
GP
I don't think the fact it was down big that is the problem, it's that the system broke down, orders weren't getting through and people getting bad quotes.
yeah, I cant access etrade either. Conicidence?
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