Tuesday, February 27, 2007

What Will Happen Tomorrow

Let's look ahead.

1.) Today has a huge down day on record volume. None of the daily charts found a meaningful technical bottom.

2.) The markets have rallied for the better part of 6 months without a major correction.

So before we get to tomorrow's economic news we already have a strong bearish bias.

Tomorrow we have GDP, new home sales and the Chicago PMI.

There's been a lot of talk about a large downward revision to this number -- a revision in the range of about 1% in GDP growth. If this happens the US economy will have three straight quarters of sub-par growth.

The PMI has been hovering around 50 for the last few months. While there was a big upward move in the NY Fed index this month, the Philly index was mediocre.

New homes sales are also important, especially with the problems in the sub-prime mortgage market right now.

Each of these numbers is important, although I think the GDP revision -- if it's large -- will be the big number of the day.