Friday, May 25, 2012

The Dollar -- the De Facto Safety Trade

Earlier today, I noted that that dollar is approaching key levels and may be about to rally.  The charts below show that the dollar is, in fact, the only safe haven currency out there.

The Australian economy is actually one of the best performing economies in the globe.  But recent numbers have shown some weakness, leading the Australian central bank to lower rates.  The primary issue here is a bi-furcated economy; mining and natural resources are doing very well, but other areas of the economy are a bit weaker.

The weekly euro chart shows that it's moving through key support levels, with the next logical price target around 118.5. 

The yen started to drop in February when the BOJ announced they would engage in additional easing and possibly accept a higher inflation rate.  The yen has rallied over the has few months largely because it's considered a haven currency.   But we still have the specter of the BOJ in the background.

The Swiss franc was considered a haven currency, until the Swiss Central Bank intervened aggressively in the market (the highlighted yellow area).  Since then the franc has been much more subdued.

The pound is caught between two countervailing trends.  One one hand, it's a haven currency close to Europe, making it the natural choice for the safety trade for EU traders.  On the other hand, the UK economy is in terrible shape.  In addition, inflation is higher than the BOE wants, interest rates are low and there are further rumblings about additional easing.