Thursday, May 24, 2012

Morning Market Analysis

I didn't mean to publish this until the AM.  But, so long as it's up....

It appears the SPYs may be trying to bottom.  Consider these charts:

First, on the daily chart, prices are currently trending up the lower part of a Fib fan.  In addition, they're hitting resistance at the 10 day EMA.  However, the lower volume totals for the last four trading days indicate this is probably a relief rally to the move lower that occurred throughout May.

The 60 minute chart shows that the 130/131 price level is providing some support.

And the 30 minute chart shows that prices are consolidating in a triangle consolidation pattern.  Resistance is around the 133 level and support is around the 129.5/130 level.

Oil is still trying to find a bottom.  The 92.3 level provided some support for a few days, but prices have moved through that level.  The rate of decline has lessened, indicating a bottom is probably closer, but we still haven't reached it yet.

The dollar is close to making an important technical break-through at the 22.7/22.8 area.  A move through that level would make the 23.4/23.5 level the next logical upside price target.