Thursday, May 24, 2012

Long Term View of the Markets Not Looking Good

Pulling the camera lens back to a monthly view, the charts of the major averages aren't looking that good.  Consider the following:

In the last three year, the IWMs have rallied into the 80-85 price area and failed.  Also note the declining MACD over the last two peaks, indicating declining momentum.  However, we do an increase in the CMF, telling us that money is flowing back into the market.

Like the IWMs the SPYs have rallied into a key area (140-142) twice over the last three years, only to be rebuffed.  Also note the moderating MACD reading.

The NASDAQ is defying the overall trend by have a "higher high, higher low" rally since 2009.  The MACD reading is positive, as is the CMF.  Also note the rising EMA picture, with the shorter above the longer, all moving higher and prices above the EMAs.

The failure of two averages to make new highs -- and to be denied when they tried to move higher -- is not a good sign.