Boring nerds for a boring economy
The NYSE advance/decline line has been the most bullish signal around for months (as lots of other signs indicated weakness). Notice that the a/d line has continued to increase even after the Feb. 27 pullback.The a/d line is actually overly sensitive to the downside, signalling the proverbial 9 of the last 5 recessions. It turned decisively lower in 1998, 2 years before the S&P high, and almost 3 years before the 2001 recession.As you know, I think recession is close, but the a/d line is contrary to my analysis. It will be interesting to see if its long trendline is broken.
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