- by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (March 31)
Over 75% of the US population is now under lockdown, and it appears to be lowering the rate of exponential growth of new infections.
Based on South Korea’s experience, a ratio of 15:1 in total tests to results showing infection is the level where there can be some confidence that the infections have been contained. But testing in the past 5 days has plateaued (not good) and is not keeping pace at all with the growth in new infections. We will not be able to transition from the Sledgehammer of lockdowns to the scalpel of aggressive testing and quarantines until this changes.
The above three most important metrics are starred (***) below.
Comparison of rates of increase in documented infections vs. testing
Result: The rate of testing has been failing to improve (until today) and remains far, far below what is needed, which is probably now at least 250,000/day. Note this target number is also increasing exponentially as we try to chase the number of exponentially increasing infections.