- by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (March 28)
[NOTE: I am not including the State by State breakdown today, which is time-intensive to create. It will resume tomorrow.]
In order to succeed in containing the pandemic, I believe that the US needs 2 weeks of China (nearly complete lockdown) followed by at least a month of South Korea (very aggressive and widespread testing).
At minimum, that means at least 50% of the US population under lockdown and a ratio of 15:1 in tests to results showing infection. The recent exponential growth of about 35% per day must be stopped. Those three most important metrics are starred (***) below.
As of now, about 60% of the population is under total or business lockdown, and the rate of increase in new infections decelerated significantly - but is still growing at over 20%/day averaged over the last 5 days. The amount of testing continues to increase, but still is falling far short of what is necessary for a successful regimen.
Comparison of rates of increase in documented infections vs. testing
Result: The rate of testing is failing to improve and is far, far below what is needed, which is probably now at least 200,000/day. Note this number is also increasing exponentially as we try to chase the number of exponentially increasing infections.