- by New Deal democrat
Here is the update through yesterday (April 2)
Almost 95% of the US population is now under lockdown. It appears that measures to date have lowered the rate of exponential growth of new infections, but the voluntary social distancing that was in effect until the first Statewide lockdowns started 2 weeks ago have failed to end that growth.
But testing in the past 6 days has plateaued (not good) and is not keeping pace at all with the growth in new infections. We will not be able to transition from the Sledgehammer of lockdowns to the scalpel of aggressive testing and quarantines until this changes. Deaths continue to climb at a steady exponential rate consistent with infections 2 weeks ago.
To transition to a South Korea style program, we also need to be able to trace infections and quarantine those newly infected. For that we need millions of thermometers, masks, and other equipment. There is no indication at all that this is happening, particularly at the Federal level.
The four most important metrics are starred (***) below.
Comparison of rates of increase in documented infections vs. testing
Result: The rate of testing has been failing to improve (until today) and remains far, far below what is needed, which is probably now at least 250,000/day. Note this target number is also increasing exponentially as we try to chase the number of exponentially increasing infections.